A bold forecast from IDC suggests Apple will set a new shipments record in 2025, propelled by its latest iPhone lineup and a rebound in China. IDC projects Apple will ship 247.4 million iPhones this year, about 6% more than 2024, and higher than the 236 million units sold in 2021 when the iPhone 13 debuted.
IDC attributes the expected surge to the strong performance of the iPhone 17 series, with Nabila Popal, IDC’s senior research director, citing “phenomenal” demand for the new models. She also notes that in China, enormous demand for iPhone 17 has dramatically boosted Apple’s overall results.
It’s important to understand that shipments measure units sent by Apple to distributors, retailers, and other sales channels. They reflect demand expectations rather than actual consumer sales.
At the iPhone 17 launch in September, investors viewed the lineup as a critical growth driver for Apple amid intensifying competition in China and ongoing questions about its AI strategy, as Android rivals progress rapidly.
IDC also forecasts a notable China performance, with a projected 17% year‑over‑year jump in iPhone shipments in the fourth quarter. This improves the annual outlook for China from a prior expectation of a 1% decline to a modest projected growth of 3% for the year.
Meanwhile, Chinese competitors such as Huawei have been eroding Apple’s market share in the region.
IDC’s outlook follows a Counterpoint Research projection released recently, which anticipated Apple to outsell Samsung in 2025 for the first time in 14 years.
Additionally, Bloomberg reported that Apple might delay the base model of its forthcoming iPhone 18 until 2027, potentially disrupting its traditional annual fall release cycle. IDC cautions that such a shift could result in a 4.2% drop in Apple’s shipments next year.
